Considerations

I did my first 12-mile day yesterday. My knee has been doing quite well so far, but yesterday it protested a bit, which means that probably 10 miles a day is going to be my maximum average sustained speed. That's consistent with last time, when it was also after I started to push beyond 12 that the knee really began to give me problems.

Which raises some considerations. Plan A was always to do this as a single through-hike, and that's what I'd still like to do. But there's a math problem: I have 2,053 miles left to go. Taking a single day off each week, which is a necessity for me, I will average 60 miles per week. Assuming that nothing else went wrong (unlikely) and skipping my planned extended break at home, that would still put me at Mt. Katahdin on October 24th--too late.

Also, there's another issue that I was hoping to avoid by starting so early, but not so successfully. There are already a LOT of people on the trail. I've had a couple of nights with 8-12 people at a shelter, and the season hasn't even really started yet. Once the dreaded "bubble" comes along, I'm told that there will be 30 or 40 clustered around a shelter built for 6, trash everywhere, privies destroyed, human waste and dirty t.p. on the side of the trail, and a general spring break atmosphere among the college kids who are out here. Not what I came out to experience.

So I may have to turn this into a section hike, and finish it next year or maybe even the year after. I'm going to wait until I get to Damascus, Va and see how my pace, my knee, and the crowds are doing before I decide. That's still 332 miles away, so by then I should know for sure. At that point I'll decide either to finish the whole thing this year, continue to my house and finish next year, or stop there and divide it into multiple sections, say doing just Virginia next year.